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Section 1-
RAPTOR software is a modeling software program for:
Reliability (tells you how many failures to expect),
Availability (tells you how muchuptime to expect), and
Maintability(tells you about maintenance down time and times between maintenance demands)
A RAM model tells you numbers forhow your system operates:

1.Yes,I know you’re an expert about things such as pumps, compressors, furnaces, heatexchangers, and vessels!
You’ve also got information about their ages to failure and times forrepairs.You can also organize the datainto a statistical format for use in a RAM model to forecast how well thingswill perform in the future.
It’s important to make your data speak for future events in building a modelfor new process and equipment. We need the facts.
Other web pages at http://www.barringer1.comtell you how to reduce these facts into the few details you need for the RAMmodel.

2.Yes,I know you have great engineers who fit the system together with expertiseabout how the blocks are conveniently arranged for a production process.
These same “fathers” or “mothers” of the process often will look you in the eyeand deny the deteriorating effects of time and loads that cause entropy changesresulting in failures of “their systems—think of their children”.Our provincial outlook makes it difficult toadmit the facts about how the creations we conceived will fail.
All systems fail—the key is when, where, and how often.All systems require maintenance.We can’t repeal the natural laws of entropychanges.This means we must account forthe failures and the effects of the failures as the model reflects real-lifeconditions.

3.Yes,I know you have experts in the process and how the system should perform on asteady-state basis.Unfortunately wedesign processes and equipment for steady-state conditions.However, we operate the systems in a dynamicmode.What we design and how we operatethem often incurs problems which we need to predict.
Systems deteriorate and systems fail so use the facts from your records to gaindetails for your models.

4.Whatyou rarely know, on a factual basis, is how the installed system will reallyfunction for number of failures, availability, and maintenance demands.The bottom line of these numbers must bereflected into time and money.
Monte Carlo RAM models allow you to computethe cost of unreliability (COUR)for a business perspective.They arehelpful in searching for cost effective alternatives for life cycle costconsiderations.

Few engineers can support the ideas in items 1-4 with engineeringcalculations.They often resort toopinions--not facts.For businessresults we need calculated facts before we build so we can convert the factsinto $ statements.We must make businessdecisions from the technical details.

Why model?

$400 is way too much in my opinion. New home memory craft 6000 sewing machine parts. I've been thinking of selling mine for less than $100 and I still have my original packing material, etc.

·We need more operating facts summarized intonumbers and less opinions devoid of numbers!

·We need operational details before we commit tobricks and mortar in a plant site.

·We need the facts to match the economics for theplant or process.

·We need these calculated facts from the model onone side of one sheet of paper.

·We need a practical representation of ouroperating plans into a computer simulation model so we can watch it run undersimulated conditions.

·RAPTOR helps work out the details using a MonteCarlo model (allows randomness in how the equipment operates before it failsand it also allows randomness in how long it takes to repair equipment) so wecan visualize what’s happening to our overall system and components in thesystem.

·Data for RAPTOR models should come from your ownmaintenance data systems.Weibull databases are availableto represent life/death of equipment.Other data sources are available in the reading list on this website withdata sources marked by a dagger symbol, .

RAPTOR is useful for engineers forconverting technical details into money for life cycle cost considerations.It does not require statisticians to buildthe model or run the model.It lets youperform “What If?” exercises to arrive at the best tradeoffs for the system.Best of all, the system produces numbers bysimulation using your facts—not opinions.You can learn what is going wrong and where you can find someadvantageous over your competitor by building the plant and operating it as acomputer model before you install the equipment.Rearrangement of plants and processes bycutting torch is an expensive process compared to building a simple RAMmodel.Remember the techie details are not the primary important issue inmost models—themoney is what’s important; and time/money is what the business mustconsider—of course we use the technical details to get to the money!

You can download some technical papers (asPDF files) showing RAPTOR models and life cycle costs from this site—justfollow the hyperlinks below.Threepapers listed below show how RAPTOR has been used for making life cycle costs decisionsusing the factual details from the field of reliability engineering and processes to arrive at thelowest long term cost of ownership (this is concept important to thestockholders view and requires that engineers must think like MBA’s as they act like engineers):

1.HowTo Justify Equipment Improvement Using Life Cycle Costs and ReliabilityPrinciples

2.Why You NeedPractical Reliability Details To Define Life Cycle Costs For Your Products andCompetitors Produces

3.How To JustifyMachinery Improvements Using Reliability Engineering Principles

Other life cycle cost papers areavailable for download as PDF files or you can go to the short list at thebottom of the LCC training page.

Section 2-
You can down load the oldRAPTOR reliability block diagram software, at no cost.These old software programs were produced bythe US Air Force.Two good reasons touse the handy RAPTOR software for reliability block diagram modeling using Monte Carlo techniques:
1) It’s free,and
2) A novice can use the software after10 minutes of play-time which makes the software very productive.
On this site you can download two older Air Force copies at no-charge.
RAPTOR Version 2.99Or you can simply download thehelp file by clicking here.
RAPTORVersion 4.0SßSee Section 3below (for better software).

Version 4.0S is the last version withouta copyright produced by the Air Force and some report problems running thisversion of Windows7. (Note: you can get later and better versions of no-costdemonstration software, remember demo software is not the same as the fullversion of software which you must purchase.The demo version and the full version are now produced by Booz Allen Hamiltonas described below in Section 3).Please note the lack of downward file compatibility by version—upwardfile compatibility is OK.

Section 3-
ARINC moved the former US Air Force software into the commercial area withtheir greatly improved version 7.0.In2013, BoozAllen Hamilton Engineering Services purchased RAPTOR from ARINC.

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You can download a demonstration version of RAPTORversion 7.0 by simply registering with the BoozAllen site.A comparisontable of the features of different version of 7.0 is available.

You can download a tutorial from http://raptor.dl.boozallen.com/Documents/Raptor7-Fourth-Ed-20130604.pdf.You can also download a product sheetfor RAPTOR version 7 from http://raptor.dl.boozallen.com/Documents/Raptor7_201301.pdf.

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Section 4-
A couple of hints on how to getstarted with RAPTOR--
First thing to build a model, inversions below 5.0, after you open RAPTOR is to put a START node on the left hand side, then put a STOP node on the right hand side of the grid.[This start/stop node sequence is not mandatory for version 7 as it will acceptthe insertion at any time]
Do this by clicking on EDIT, click on ADD, click on NODEand select the proper node (by the way, I always add extra CONNECT nodes because it seems the number of blocksgrow like Topsey and you should freely addintermediate CONNECT nodes as it simplifies your life.Exit the nodes selection by right mouseclick.
Second thing is to add blocksfor each element in your model.
Do this by click on EDIT, click on ADD, click on BLOCKSand put them into a logical/functional diagram.If you have “no clue” as to the life distribution, always choose EXPONENTIAL and select the Mean, i.e., MTTF (leave the location aszero) and select LOGNORMALand select Mean,i.e., MTTR with the default standarddeviation (actually it’s a shape factor for the lognormal as it hasno dimensions because it’s a lognormal value) of 2 units.When you’ve added thecorrect number of blocks, right mouse click to exit the block addition.By the way, all units for MTTF and MTTR mustbe consistent—let’s assume you use hours!!You can get some ideas about repair times from the example in the July ’01 Problem Of The Month.
Third thing is to addlinks.
Do this by click on EDIT, click on ADD, click on LINKS,and then click with drag at the center ofthe start node and while holding down your left mouse key, drag the link to thenext node/block.Repeat until the modelis linked together.Exit the link modeby right mouse click.
Fourth thing is to click on FILE (now is a good time to save your file) andclick on SIMULATE.
If you can’t get to the simulate button, try a right mouse click!A dialog box will ask for your STOP time i.e., mission time—let’s assume it’s 8760 hours.Thedialog box will also ask for the NUMBERof simulations—choose 100 or more because not every block in most diagrams willhave a failure in a single year and you should work on the basis of “safety innumbers”.
Fifth thing is to follow yournose for the balance of the details you will need.
As a memory jogger, when you select Weibull distributions for failure modes:
theshape factor = b = slope of the Weibullline and
thescale factor = h = characteristic age tofailure, and
thelocation = t₀= correction of the time origin. (Set this value tozero unless----see below.)
The correction of the time origin can be to the left (i.e., failures beginbefore you put the equipment into service) or to the right (i.e., a “failurefree interval” prevents failures before a given time).The usual value for location = t₀ = correction of the time origin should be zero.To get a correct value for t₀you will need:
1)a sample size of at lest 21 failures to document a t₀ value, plus
2)a physical explanation of why this condition is true and
3)other three parameter details outlined in section 3 of The New Weibull Handbook
So, the bottom line is to set location= t₀ = 0 unless you have overwhelming evidence that supports yourhypothesis!
Sixth thing is convert theresults from the model into time and money.
Everyone understands time and money (we usually have too little of both!).Don’t give your audience a root canal byendlessly speaking of the technical details—in the end, it’s all about time, money, and alternatives—this is whatyou must talk about!

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Lastrevised 02/13/2014